Asmus Puhl Finance Blog

Fitch downgraded the public debt of Greece, a member of the Euro to BBB+

Moody’s and S&P both have a negative outlook for this country.

If the numbers are correct (and this is not always certain in Greece) the public deficit ballooned to 12%,  far above the 3% threshold the Maastricht treaty normally allows. Public debt reaches 120% of GDP.

Yesterday Moody’s lowered its outlook for Spain’s national debt. If informations are correct Portugal is not in a much better situation.

These countries face a serious problem: They cannot devaluate their currency in order to help their economy because they are members of the Euro. This could mean sluggish economy with rising public interest payments as creditors are willing to lend only with higher risk premiums.

For the first time a sovereign debt crisis within the monetary union could be on the horizon.

So far my fears expressed in my previous post begin to become reality!

The Euro weakened against the dollar for the first time after weeks.

Gold currently passes a correction after the huge runup this year but it will be interesting to watch where it will be heading in 2010:

Once again: Will gold rise only when the dollar is weakening or will it rise also when the dollar remains relatively strong?

If the second alternative prevails this could very well be a strong indicator of the beginning distrust in paper currencies Alan Greenspan mentioned earlier this year …. a distrust in all paper currencies, not only the dollar!

We would then be only at the beginning of a multiyear gold bull market!

Every day we are witnessing a new record price for gold and a lower price of the dollar.

And we are quick to explain it:

There are the carry trades:  to take on debt in US-Dollar costs a littlebid more than nothing and this money will be invested in assets like p.e. gold.

With an interest level of more or less zero you don’t bother that gold is an asset that does not pay any interest.

Other comments point to the US public deficit and to a possible inflation at the horizon.

So the rising gold price seems to be the parallel of the falling dollar.

But don’t these explanations focus too much on the dollar?

Is the public deficit and the accumulated debt of the Euro – countries so much better than those of the US ?

European economic growth perspectives are worse than that of the more dynamic US economy!

Japan with its extremely low interest level already spends 23% of its budget for interest on its public debt.

Do the Asian sovereign investors really have so much more faith in the Japanese Yen or the Euro when they try to diversify their currency reserves?

Isn’t Allen Greanspan right when he says that the „rising prices of precious metals and other commodities are an indication of a very early stage of an endeavor to move away from paper currencies.”?

This would mean a move away from all paper currencies!

Will public debt problems jump faster from the Arabian desert into the European monetary union than we think?

Members like Greece, Italy or Portugal are already in a worse situation than many people believe. Dubai could only be the starting point of a more widespread crisis.

I think if gold will hold or move up when the Dollar is at least temporarily strengthening this will be a clear indicatior that we are in a multi-year gold bull market which will us take much higher than the next threshold of $ 1’200 .

Don’t forget that the „All time high” of gold at $ 873/oz. about 30 years ago today would translate into $ 2247/oz. !

Watch for the strategic moves of some market participants especially in Asia,

we pointed out on this blog several times when commenting the Gold market’s recent run-up!

And now India’s central bank buys 200 tonnes of Gold from the IMF!

This is the biggest single gold purchase within the last 30 years.

Gold jumped to a new record high this morning as it becomes evident that large buyers like governments and central banks accept these current price levels!

Will governments of other countries follow? Will they diversify their reserves away from the US-Dollar?

India today confirmed they will do so!

Don’t forget that the Asian countries are not indebted like the US or the major European countries. They have money. They accumulated huge currency reserves over the last years and they are more and more frustrated about the declining value of the US-Dollar.

Stay tuned as this story unfolds!

Gold prices that jumped above $1,000 an ounce this week are signaling that investors are buying metals to hedge against declines in currencies, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Sept. 9 at an investment conference in New York.

The gains are “strictly a monetary phenomenon.” Rising prices of precious metals and other commodities are “an indication of a very early stage of an endeavor to move away from paper currencies,” he said.

And he continued: “What is fascinating is the extent to which gold still holds reign over the financial system as the ultimate source of payment.”

Can we still have confidence in Alan Greenspan today?

After all it was his low interest policy as Fed Chairman that contributed to the liquidity bubble and the debt crisis which brought our financial system and the world economy near the collapse.

But it is a fact:

About 30 years ago gold reached its highest price at $ 873/oz.

Inflation adjusted this would translate into $ 2247/oz. today.

So at $ 1058/oz. we are still far away from this „historic all time high”!

And don’t forget:

Since Oct. 1^st the gold price never felt below the $ 1000 threshold.

We already get used to it, don’t we?

I think this could very well lay the foundations for an extended rally …. with all the volatility which is inherent to precious metal markets.

And the strategic moves of some market participants mentioned in my previous posts only continue to strengthen the upward tendency!

Our guest author John Gault this summer published an article about the idea of 

“Energy Independence” promoted by every American President from Richard Nixon to Barack Obama.

You can now read this interesting article on our in-depth analysis web site!

Enjoy!

A lot of market participants are bullish for gold these days.

But what about gold’s „little sister” silver?

Mother Earth contains about 15 times as much silver than gold and the historical prices for gold and silver reflected this ratio most of the time.

And how are prices today?

One oz. of gold this Friday morning stands at $ 1045, but one oz. of silver only costs $ 17.75

(watch for precious metal quotes on “Kitco.com” )

So today you can buy 59 oz. of silver for the price of one oz. of gold!

This is an enormous disconnect from the historical price ratio!

What do you think?

Will this gap close?  Does this mean the beginning of a huge silver rally?

After the Fed meeting of yesterday Gold is a little down at $ 1014 /ounce in today’s morning trade. The dollar stands at 1.4770 against the Euro.

So will Gold continue to move higher?

Ok, a short term setback is always possible. Gold is rather volatile and attracts a lot of short term traders and hedge funds.

But as I pointed out, watch for the strategic moves of the Asian countries and the Oil producing Arab countries!

Will they continue to move away from the US-$ as their dominant currency reserve and diversify? Gold is clearly one of their options.

Don’t forget that the US and the other Western countries lost a lot of credibility during the financial crisis. Asia looks at this as a Western crisis.

The level of Western indebtness worries Asia where neither the countries nor the banks or consumers are leveraged as their Western counterparts.

A good indicator could be the declarations of China and other Asian countries at the G-20 summit in Pittsburgh.

They already ask for more voting rights for Asian countries within the IMF. And definitely this will not be their last move.

Recently the last „bear” of the big gold mines, Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX), threw in the towel and annouced a huge $ 5.6 billion charge in Q3 2009 in order to eliminate their fixed price gold contracts, reflecting an „increasing positive outlook on the gold price”.

Stay tuned!