The imminent dangers of the Greek and the general European debt crisis are not reduced by 2 favorable votes of Greek Parliament. At best they bought some more time.<\/p>\n
European politics still treats the problem more as a liquidity problem than a solvency problem. The Greek economy (if there is a serious one…) will slip deeper into recession at a rate of about – 4%. Public debt in relation to GDP will continue to rise.<\/p>\n
So we know that one day Greek public debt has to be restructured we just do not know exactly when!<\/p>\n
French and German Banks are more or less “forced” to\u00a0 “voluntarily” ease the pain of Greek debt (interesting to watch whether the rating agencies will agree…)<\/p>\n
Deutsche Bank apparently is in intensive talks with its auditors how to avoid depreciation of Greek public bond holdings.<\/p>\n
But isn’t this already the beginning of restructuring Greek debt?<\/p>\n
What about the balance sheet quality of European banks if they really do not need to depreciate bonds of a public entity which does not have access to capital markets anymore?<\/p>\n
As investors we certainly have to keep away of European banks and insurance companies! Outside investors just cannot value the quality of their balance sheets well enough when insiders barely can!<\/p>\n
Perhaps the need to recapitalize is already much bigger than we think, especially if other European periphery states get weak!<\/p>\n
But on the other hand there are new forces in the world economy, globalization continues and a lot of European companies outside the financial sector are doing more and more business in emerging markets.<\/p>\n
So avoid the European financial sector! Most probably there is already more toxic waste than we think!<\/p>\n
Will the stock of European industrial and export companies decline if the debt crisis gets worse?<\/p>\n
Yes, almost certainly.<\/p>\n
Until which point? We just do not know.<\/p>\n
But we do know that they will recover when savvy investors will step in and buy quality at interesting prices!<\/p>\n
So why not start to open small positions in these days and average down when stock markets get weak?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
The imminent dangers of the Greek and the general European debt crisis are not reduced by 2 favorable votes of Greek Parliament. At best they bought some more time. European politics still treats the problem more as a liquidity problem than a solvency problem. The Greek economy (if there is a serious one…) will slip […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[45],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.blog.asmus-puhl.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/739"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.blog.asmus-puhl.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.blog.asmus-puhl.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.blog.asmus-puhl.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.blog.asmus-puhl.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=739"}],"version-history":[{"count":15,"href":"http:\/\/www.blog.asmus-puhl.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/739\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":754,"href":"http:\/\/www.blog.asmus-puhl.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/739\/revisions\/754"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.blog.asmus-puhl.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=739"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.blog.asmus-puhl.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=739"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.blog.asmus-puhl.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=739"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}